Know the Statistics to Know Your Chances
WHY IT MATTERS
In Kelgbeh’s Village
Know the Statistics to Know Your Chances
By: Isaac Solo Kelgbeh
The journey for PAMOJA began last week with 48 countries vying to book their respective tickets for Africa’s major biennial soccer gala. Pamoja, a Swahili word meaning “Together,” reflects the joint hosting of the tournament by Kenya, Uganda (Tilo’s second home), and Tanzania. It is the first time three countries will co-host Africa’s greatest and biggest soccer festival. This edition also marks the final two-year AFCON’s fear before the tournament transitions to a four-year cycle.
Although 48 countries have been paired into 12 groups of four, only 21 countries will join the three hosts. This means only one team from each host nation’s group will qualify.
The host groups are:
• Group D: Kenya, Eritrea, South Africa, Guinea
• Group H: Uganda, Libya, Botswana, Tunisia
• Group L: Tanzania, Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria, Madagascar
With Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania already qualified as co-hosts, analysts have tipped South Africa, Nigeria, and Tunisia to progress from the three grouos. However, favorites don’t always win.
Liberia’s pride and joy, the Lone Star, placed in Group K, began its PAMOJA campaign on Friday, September 25, 2026, with a 1–3 loss to Rwanda’s Amavubi (Wasps). On Tuesday, September 29, 2027, the Lone Star will continue its quest against Mali’s Les Aigles (The Eagles) at the famous Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex, once a fortress for the red, white, and blue outfit.
Since the defeat in Kigali, debates have erupted across various quarters including sports journalists and enthusiasts, former players, coaches, and political stakeholders. These discussions are healthy for the game, which thrives on passion and self-styled experts. Comments attributed to the CSA Director and the LPRC Boss (also an LFA Executive Committee member) have circulated widely. I am not here to dive into their remarks, but rather to outline Liberia’s chances of progressing. But remember: favorites don’t always win.
Coaching Pedigree in Group K
Group K comprises Cape Verde, Liberia, Mali, and Rwanda. All four head coaches hold UEFA Pro Licenses, though their experience and earnings differ significantly.
• Cape Verde – Humberto Bettencourt, Former assistant coach to Pedro Bubista Leitao Brito for six years. Brito left after the 2026 World Cup for a Moroccan club. Bettencourt, now head coach, earns about US$125,000 annually and brings both AFCON and World Cup experience. Bettencourt is a local coach.
• Liberia – Mohammed Adil Erradi Recommended by Moroccan sports authorities. No national team experience (not an assistant or head coach for any national team before taking over the Lone Star). Erradi, though, has coached clubs in Morocco, Rwanda, Ghana, and Belgium. Expected salary: US$98,000 annually.
• Mali – Anthony da Silva Portuguese tactician earning 200 million CFA (US$355,000) per year. Served on Cameroon’s coaching staff from 2019–2025, including the 2021 AFCON bronze-winning team. Has coached in Portugal and Romania.
• Rwanda – Stephen Constantine UEFA-licensed since 2004. Has coached in Nepal, India, Malawi, Sudan, Cyprus, and Rwanda. When he took over Rwanda, they were ranked 135th globally. Estimated salary: US$132,000 annually.
FIFA Rankings (20 July 2026)
• Mali: 9th in Africa (49th world)
• Cape Verde: 13th in Africa (64th world)
• Rwanda: 34th in Africa (123rd world)
• Liberia: 41st in Africa (142nd world)
Next rankings will be released in October 2026.
Liberia’s Performance and Chances
Despite the statistics and coaching pedigree, Liberia’s performance in Rwanda was impressive, especially in the second half. One reason may be Erradi’s familiarity with Rwandan players from his club coaching days. The poor early start could be attributed to psychological factors, including reported intimidation. As Janjay Jacob noted, these issues have remedies. The Coaching staff should have handled same as it was long anticipated.
So, What Are Liberia’s Chances?
In my ADD voice (not cast in stone), Liberia must secure a positive result or win against Mali, and then win all remaining home games to stand any chance of qualifying for PAMOJA.
As former Sports Editor of Liberia’s once-leading daily, The Inquirer Newspaper, I do not see the Lone Star repeating Rwanda’s fight against Cape Verde and Mali. At home, supporters will inspire the boys, but our coach does not know the other teams as well as he knows Rwanda. The national team setup remains disappointing. We lack specialized local coaches for goalkeepers, defense, and strikers, and when we do have them, they rarely travel with the team for away matches.
Withdrawal should not be an option at all though we have very limited chances of qualifying for PAMOJA. We can use the qualifying rounds to give our players experience. Erradi has vast of experience working with youth teams. Authorities should consider giving him the U-17 or U-20 to work with if we are to retain the Moroccan, With that, we can begin preparing for AFCON 2031.
